Sciences occultes

Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances

2005 · 73692 — Washington DC: The National Academies Press 2005. Presumed First Edition First printing. Wraps. Very good. xvi 122 pages. Illustrations Figures Tables Boxes and Charts. Acronyms. Footnotes. References. Cover has slight wear and soiling. The global spread of expertise in science and technology and commercial access to advanced technologies with possible military applications could undermine the technological superiority on which U.S. military strength is based. To address this possibility the U.S. intelligence community must provide adequate effective warnings of the evolution of critical technologies. The Technology Warning Division of the Defense Intelligence Agency asked the National Academies to undertake a study of technology warning issues. This report the first part of that study provides an assessment of critical evolving technologies; postulates ways potential adversaries could disrupt their development; and identifies warning signs that disruptive methods are under development. The intention of this report is to establish the foundation for a long-term relationship between the National Academies and the technology warning community to support ongoing studies of technology warning issues. U.S. military strength is built on a foundation of technological superiority that grew from a position of global leadership in relevant technologies and innovative capabilities. That leadership position is no longer assured. The synergistic forces of globalization and commercialization of science and technology are providing current and future adversaries with access to advanced technologies as well as the expertise needed to exploit those technologies. The Defense Intelligence Agency DIA requested that the National Research Council NRC establish the Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews to conduct meetings with the intelligence community IC in order to develop study topics relating to technology warning. The committee was asked to produce a report based on its discussions with the intelligence community that discusses capabilities upon which U.S. warfighters are dependent and to identify the potential for adversaries to threaten those capabilities through the exploitation of evolving technologies. It is the intent of both the DIA Technology Warning Division as sponsor and the National Research Council that this report which is limited in scope will establish the foundation for a long-term collaborative relationship to support the examination of technology warning issues. It is expected that such examination will be useful not only for the DIA but also for other members of the intelligence community who might need such analyses. It is intended that the current ad hoc committee be disbanded subsequent to the publication of this report and that a standing committee be formed to work with the IC to keep abreast of issues relating to technology warning and to develop specific statements of task for independent ad hoc committees of the NRC to perform. The National Academies Press paperback